{"publication":"published","gate":{"ready":true,"missing":[]},"requirements":{"minSettlementsPerVenue":30,"minSpanDays":7,"minVenuesCovered":3,"maxMissingPredictionShare":0.3},"readWindow":{"start":"2026-08-26T16:08:22.438Z","end":"2026-09-25T16:08:22.438Z","days":30},"methodologyVersions":[2,3,4],"method":["Each realized settlement is compared with the last stored prediction for the same settlement that PerpFinder observed before the settlement time.","Rates are hourly-normalized fractions. Errors show in basis points per hour (1 bps = 0.01%).","The comparison period is shared for each venue and asset: it starts after the first usable stored prediction and ends at the last settlement that a stored prediction targets.","A settlement in that period without a matching prediction counts as missing.","Hyperliquid predictions from methodology versions 1 to 3 stored the start of the running hour as the next settlement. The ledger adds one hour to those rows and labels each corrected pair.","Kraken reports no settlement time. Binance, OKX and Bybit have no predicted rate in the PerpFinder source mapping. These venues have no pairs."],"units":{"maeBpsPerHour":"mean absolute error of the hourly-normalized rate, basis points per hour","biasBpsPerHour":"mean of realized minus predicted, basis points per hour","signHitRate":"share of pairs where predicted and realized have the same sign (0 = 0 counts as the same sign)"},"nullSemantics":"null = no matched pair; never zero-filled","readiness":[{"venue":"Hyperliquid","asset":"BTC","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":320,"matchedPairs":320,"correctedPairs":315,"missingPredictionShare":0,"spanDays":13.29},{"venue":"dYdX","asset":"BTC","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":320,"matchedPairs":320,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":0,"spanDays":13.29},{"venue":"Hyperliquid","asset":"ETH","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":320,"matchedPairs":308,"correctedPairs":303,"missingPredictionShare":0.03749999999999998,"spanDays":13.29},{"venue":"dYdX","asset":"ETH","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":320,"matchedPairs":308,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":0.03749999999999998,"spanDays":13.29},{"venue":"Gate.io","asset":"BTC","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":40,"matchedPairs":40,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":0,"spanDays":13},{"venue":"Gate.io","asset":"ETH","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":40,"matchedPairs":39,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":0.025000000000000022,"spanDays":13},{"venue":"Binance","asset":"BTC","windowStart":"2026-08-26T16:08:22.438Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:08:22.438Z","settlementCount":90,"matchedPairs":0,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":1,"spanDays":29.67},{"venue":"OKX","asset":"BTC","windowStart":"2026-08-26T16:08:22.438Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:08:22.438Z","settlementCount":90,"matchedPairs":0,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":1,"spanDays":29.67},{"venue":"Bybit","asset":"BTC","windowStart":"2026-08-26T16:08:22.438Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:08:22.438Z","settlementCount":90,"matchedPairs":0,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":1,"spanDays":29.67},{"venue":"Bybit","asset":"ETH","windowStart":"2026-08-26T16:08:22.438Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:08:22.438Z","settlementCount":90,"matchedPairs":0,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":1,"spanDays":29.67},{"venue":"Binance","asset":"ETH","windowStart":"2026-08-26T16:08:22.438Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:08:22.438Z","settlementCount":90,"matchedPairs":0,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":1,"spanDays":29.67},{"venue":"OKX","asset":"ETH","windowStart":"2026-08-26T16:08:22.438Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:08:22.438Z","settlementCount":90,"matchedPairs":0,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":1,"spanDays":29.67}],"accuracy":[{"venue":"dYdX","asset":"BTC","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":320,"matchedPairs":320,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":0,"maeBpsPerHour":0.00209,"biasBpsPerHour":-0.00021,"signHitRate":0.8219,"medianLeadMinutes":7.5},{"venue":"dYdX","asset":"ETH","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":320,"matchedPairs":308,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":0.0375,"maeBpsPerHour":0.00731,"biasBpsPerHour":-0.00019,"signHitRate":0.9383,"medianLeadMinutes":7.5},{"venue":"Gate.io","asset":"BTC","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":40,"matchedPairs":40,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":0,"maeBpsPerHour":0.00191,"biasBpsPerHour":0.00009,"signHitRate":1,"medianLeadMinutes":7.5},{"venue":"Gate.io","asset":"ETH","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":40,"matchedPairs":39,"correctedPairs":0,"missingPredictionShare":0.025,"maeBpsPerHour":0.00244,"biasBpsPerHour":0.00038,"signHitRate":1,"medianLeadMinutes":7.6},{"venue":"Hyperliquid","asset":"BTC","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":320,"matchedPairs":320,"correctedPairs":315,"missingPredictionShare":0,"maeBpsPerHour":0.0026,"biasBpsPerHour":0.00035,"signHitRate":0.9906,"medianLeadMinutes":7.5},{"venue":"Hyperliquid","asset":"ETH","windowStart":"2026-09-12T08:52:28.326Z","windowEnd":"2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z","settlementCount":320,"matchedPairs":308,"correctedPairs":303,"missingPredictionShare":0.0375,"maeBpsPerHour":0.00307,"biasBpsPerHour":0.00056,"signHitRate":1,"medianLeadMinutes":7.5}],"csv":{"summary":"/api/data/funding-prediction-accuracy?format=csv","pairs":"/api/data/funding-prediction-accuracy?format=csv&detail=pairs"},"ledgerGeneratedAt":"2026-09-25T16:08:22.438Z","dataStatus":"live","upstreamTimestamp":1790352502438,"generatedAt":"2026-09-25T16:20:26.937Z","schemaVersion":1,"sources":"PerpFinder 15-minute funding sweeps (predicted rows) matched to the append-only venue settlement ledger; no synthetic backfill"}