Funding prediction accuracy
From September 17, 2026 to October 16, 2026, the dYdX BTC funding rate forecast had the lowest mean absolute error in the ledger: 0.002 bps per hour over 702 matched pairs. Its forecast had the same sign as the settled rate in 87% of the pairs. The table covers 3 venues and 2,957 matched pairs.
Some venues publish a forecast of the next funding rate. This page compares each stored forecast with the funding rate at settlement.
3
venues with forecasts and settlements
2,957
matched forecast and settlement pairs
30 days
maximum read period
Accuracy by venue and asset
| Venue | Asset | Settlements | Pairs | Missing | MAE, bps/h | Bias, bps/h | Same sign | Median lead | Corrected | Period (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dYdX | BTC | 702 | 702 | 0.0% | 0.0022 | 0.0001 | 86.8% | 7.5 min | 0 | Sep 17, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026 |
| dYdX | ETH | 702 | 690 | 1.7% | 0.0086 | 0.0000 | 94.5% | 7.5 min | 0 | Sep 17, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026 |
| Gate.io | BTC | 87 | 87 | 0.0% | 0.0024 | -0.0003 | 98.9% | 7.5 min | 0 | Sep 17, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026 |
| Gate.io | ETH | 87 | 86 | 1.1% | 0.0027 | -0.0002 | 97.7% | 7.5 min | 0 | Sep 17, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026 |
| Hyperliquid | BTC | 702 | 702 | 0.0% | 0.0027 | 0.0001 | 99.7% | 7.5 min | 203 | Sep 17, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026 |
| Hyperliquid | ETH | 702 | 690 | 1.7% | 0.0024 | 0.0002 | 99.1% | 7.5 min | 191 | Sep 17, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026 |
Errors use hourly-normalized rates. One basis point (bps) equals 0.01%. A lower MAE means the forecast was closer to the settled rate. The forecast is the last one that PerpFinder stored before each settlement, so the lead time is short. These figures describe past forecasts. They do not predict future funding.
How PerpFinder measures forecast accuracy
Each realized settlement is compared with the last stored prediction for the same settlement that PerpFinder observed before the settlement time.
Rates are hourly-normalized fractions. Errors show in basis points per hour (1 bps = 0.01%).
The comparison period is shared for each venue and asset: it starts after the first usable stored prediction and ends at the last settlement that a stored prediction targets.
A settlement in that period without a matching prediction counts as missing.
Hyperliquid predictions from methodology versions 1 to 3 stored the start of the running hour as the next settlement. The ledger adds one hour to those rows and labels each corrected pair.
Kraken reports no settlement time. Binance, OKX and Bybit have no predicted rate in the PerpFinder source mapping. These venues have no pairs.
The publication requirements are: 3 venues, 30 settlements per venue, 7 days of settlements, and no more than 30% missing forecasts. The funding methodology gives the rate types, intervals and version history. There is no synthetic backfill: a missed collection run stays missing.
Data downloads
- Summary and publication status (JSON), with the requirements and the counts for each venue.
- Accuracy by venue and asset (CSV).
- Each matched pair (CSV), with the forecast time, the lead time and the correction label.
- Source rows: stored Hyperliquid BTC forecasts and BTC settlements.
The funding rates overview shows the current and predicted rates.
Terms used on this page
- Funding rate
- A funding rate is the periodic payment between long and short positions that keeps a perpetual futures price near its index price. When the rate is positive, longs pay shorts.
- Funding interval
- The funding interval is the time between two funding settlements on one market, for example 1 hour or 8 hours. A rate always belongs to its interval.
Cite this data
Use the page address and the date of the data. Attribute the data as "Data: PerpFinder" with a link to the page.
PerpFinder. "Funding rate prediction accuracy: BTC and ETH by venue." Ledger read October 16, 2026 at 06:27 UTC, settlements to October 16, 2026. https://perpfinder.com/funding-rates/prediction-accuracy Accuracy by venue and asset (CSV): https://perpfinder.com/api/data/funding-prediction-accuracy?format=csv Matched pairs (CSV): https://perpfinder.com/api/data/funding-prediction-accuracy?format=csv&detail=pairs
Download: Accuracy by venue and asset (CSV) · Matched pairs (CSV)